Experts Predict Powerful Quake: Indonesia

In what can only be expressed as a portent, experts at the East Java Disaster Mitigation Agency have predicted a massive earthquake in East Java is likely in the next 14 years. Being so close to Bali it could have devastating consequences for the island.

If the earthquake were to be on the scale of that which recently occurred in Yogyakarta, then the shockwaves could most definitely hit the Kuta region and Denpasar causing considerable devastation. A geophysics expert said a powerful earthquake would hit East Java some time between 2010 and 2020 and his prediction came after studying records on earthquake cycles measuring over six points on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale.

Most large earthquakes in East Java from the 1930s to 2000 measured from six to nine on the MMI scale. In East Java quake-prone areas are located in the southern part of the province such as Pacitan, South Malang, South Blitar, Jember, Banyuwangi and Situbondo.
In these areas numerous local and regional tectonic plate fractures have been detected by agency's research team.

One local fault line which ran along the Brantas River was interesting because it resembled another in Yogyakarta, the fault at the center of May's earthquake.

Earthquakes could also be triggered by the string of active volcanoes along the central part of East Java. The three most active volcanoes are Mount Semeru, Bromo and Kelud, while those that erupt less frequently are Arjuno, Welirang and Penanggungan.